1. Core Concepts
Projection
A projection is Showstone’s estimate of how a player is expected to perform in a given stat category for an upcoming game.
It is based on historical performance, matchup data, and game context. Projections are estimates, not guarantees.
Confidence Rating
The confidence rating summarizes how well-supported a projection appears to be based on past data and context.
Higher confidence generally means more stability in role, minutes, and matchup patterns. Lower confidence indicates more uncertainty
or volatility around the situation.
Edge
Edge compares the success rate implied by odds to what historical and contextual data suggest in similar spots.
A positive edge means the data suggests a higher success rate than the odds imply; a negative edge means the opposite. Edge is
informational and does not guarantee any outcome.
Matchup Difficulty
Matchup difficulty is a high-level rating of how tough or favorable an opponent is for a specific stat category
(for example, points for guards, rebounds for centers). It incorporates defensive tendencies, pace, and positional patterns over time.
Trend
A trend describes whether a player appears to be moving above, below, or in line with their usual baseline in a stat.
Trends help highlight when a player’s recent performance is deviating meaningfully from their typical levels.
2. Context and Environment
Game Context
Game context refers to the situational factors surrounding a game, such as pace, rest, travel, spread, and expected
competitiveness. Context can influence how likely it is for players to reach or exceed their usual numbers.
Pace
Pace is a measure of how many possessions a game typically has. Faster-paced games often create more opportunities
for counting stats (points, rebounds, assists), while slower-paced games can suppress volume.
Usage / Role
Usage or role describes how involved a player is in the team’s offense or game plan.
Higher usage usually means more scoring and assist opportunities, while changes in role (for example, moving to the bench)
can significantly alter expectations.
Rest Advantage / Disadvantage
Rest advantage or disadvantage refers to situations where one team has more or fewer days of rest
than the opponent. Back-to-backs or heavy travel can influence pace, minutes, and performance.
3. Player Prop Categories
Points (PTS)
Points refers to a player's total points scored in a game. Points props focus on whether a player will finish above
or below a specified total.
Rebounds (REB)
Rebounds are the total boards a player collects (offensive and defensive combined). Rebound props evaluate whether
a player will exceed or fall short of a listed rebound number.
Assists (AST)
Assists are passes that directly lead to made baskets. Assist props focus on how many such plays a player is likely
to generate in a game.
Threes / 3PM
Threes or 3PM (three-pointers made) refers to the total number of made three-point shots by a player
in a game. These props can be more volatile due to shooting variance.
Combination Stats (PRA, etc.)
Combination stats, such as PRA (points + rebounds + assists), combine multiple categories into a single line.
Showstone may provide insights for these where applicable, especially when a player contributes across the box score.
Note: The exact markets available can vary by season, operator, and region. Showstone focuses on the most commonly used NBA player prop categories.