Edge Metrics on Showstone

How Showstone defines and interprets edge for NBA player prop insights.

Last updated: 2025-11-14

This page explains Showstone’s edge metric conceptually: how it relates to implied accuracy from odds and historical performance, without revealing proprietary internal calculations or models.

1. What Is Edge?

On Showstone, edge is a way to compare how often something would need to succeed based on odds alone versus how often it has historically succeeded in similar situations. It is designed as an informational metric that highlights where the data and the listed odds might be out of sync.

In short:

Implied accuracy from odds – what the market “assumes” will happen.
Data-informed expectation – what historical patterns and context suggest.

Edge looks at the difference between those two views.

2. Implied Accuracy from Odds

Every set of odds carries an implied success rate. For example, if a prop is priced in a way that implies break-even around 55%, that means the player would need to succeed roughly 55% of the time in the long run to justify those odds.

Different price formats (American, decimal, fractional) can be converted into implied probabilities. The exact conversion formulas are standard in betting mathematics and are not unique to Showstone.

3. Historical and Contextual View

Showstone also looks at how similar situations have behaved historically. This includes factors such as:

The player’s past performance in comparable roles and minutes
Matchup difficulty and opponent tendencies
Game context, such as pace and rest

From this, Showstone estimates how often a given type of outcome has occurred in those comparable spots. This becomes the data-informed view.

The precise way Showstone defines “comparable situations” and aggregates them into an expected rate is proprietary and is not publicly disclosed.

4. Edge at a High Level

At a high level, the edge metric can be thought of as:

Edge ≈ Data-informed expected accuracy − Implied accuracy from odds

For example:

Suppose:

The odds imply a break-even accuracy of 53.5%, and
Historical/contextual patterns suggest an expected accuracy of 58%.

Then the edge would be:

Edge = 58% − 53.5% = +4.5%

A positive edge means the data paints a more optimistic picture than the odds alone. A negative edge would mean the opposite.

5. How to Use Edge in Practice

Edge is most useful when viewed alongside other Showstone metrics:

Projection – the estimated stat outcome.
Confidence – how stable and well-supported the projection appears.
Matchup difficulty – how tough or favorable the opponent is for that stat.
Trends – whether the player is trending up, down, or holding steady.

In general:

A positive edge means the data suggests a higher success rate than implied by the odds.
A negative edge means the data suggests a lower success rate than implied by the odds.

Edge does not take the place of individual judgment. It is a signal designed to highlight where the numbers and the market may be diverging.

6. Limitations of Edge

Edge is based on historical patterns and context, which:

May not fully capture new coaching strategies or role changes
Cannot foresee last-minute injuries or rotation surprises
Are always subject to variance and randomness

A positive edge does not guarantee a positive outcome on any individual game or ticket. It simply indicates that, based on the available data, similar situations have performed differently than what the odds alone might suggest.

Edge is best used as a long-term information tool rather than as a standalone decision rule for single events.