Confidence Ratings on Showstone
How to read and interpret confidence when looking at NBA player prop insights.
Last updated: 2025-11-14
This page explains confidence ratings in plain language. It describes what they represent and how to use them, without
exposing internal model structures, formulas, or proprietary calculations.
1. What Is a Confidence Rating?
On Showstone, the confidence rating summarizes how strongly an upcoming projection is supported by historical data,
matchup information, and contextual stability. It is not a guarantee of an outcome; instead, it is a way to describe how
“trustworthy” a projection appears based on what has happened in similar situations.
A higher confidence rating means the projection is built on more stable patterns. A lower confidence rating signals that there
is more uncertainty or volatility around the player, matchup, or context.
2. What Drives Confidence Ratings?
While Showstone does not publish the exact math behind its confidence ratings, several categories of factors influence them
at a high level.
2.1 Player Consistency
If a player has been delivering similar stat lines in comparable situations over time, the system can be more confident in
future expectations. If their game log is highly volatile, confidence tends to be lower.
- Stable minutes and role → higher confidence
- Erratic usage or frequent role changes → lower confidence
2.2 Matchup Clarity
Some matchups are well-understood and behave similarly across many games; others are unpredictable. Confidence is generally
higher when:
- The opponent has a well-defined defensive profile
- Similar players have shown consistent results in comparable matchups
2.3 Game Context Stability
Factors like expected pace, likely competitiveness, and projected minutes can help or hurt confidence. For example:
- Normal rest, typical rotation, neutral spread → more stable context
- Back-to-back, blowout risk, injuries in the rotation → more uncertainty
3. How to Read the Confidence Scale
The exact numeric scale and thresholds used internally by Showstone are proprietary. However, as a user you can think of
confidence bands in simple tiers, such as:
- Low confidence – the situation is noisy, volatile, or unusually uncertain.
- Medium confidence – data is decent, but context or volatility limits how strong the signal is.
- High confidence – data, matchup, and context all point in a similar direction with relatively low noise.
These tiers are meant to guide expectations, not to tell you what to do.
Example: A player with consistent 34–36 minutes, similar usage in the same role, and familiar matchup patterns
is more likely to carry a higher confidence rating compared to a bench player whose minutes swing between 16 and 30 depending
on game script.
4. How to Use Confidence in Practice
Confidence ratings are most useful when combined with other information on the page, such as:
- The projected stat value (points, rebounds, assists, etc.)
- Matchup difficulty rating
- Trend direction (upward, neutral, or downward)
- Edge metrics where available
A few examples of how users might interpret confidence:
-
A strong projection with high confidence may indicate a well-supported spot where historical patterns and context align.
-
A strong projection with low confidence may signal a higher-risk, higher-variance situation where more can go wrong.
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A modest projection with high confidence may suggest a relatively “boring” but stable expectation.
5. Limitations of Confidence Ratings
Confidence ratings do not:
- Guarantee that a player will land above or below any particular number
- Account for every possible last-minute change (injuries, rotations, etc.)
- Eliminate the randomness inherent in sports
They are a summary of how reliable a projection appears given past data and context, not a promise about future results.
As with all of Showstone’s analytics, confidence should be treated as one tool among many when evaluating NBA player props.